10.27.2026 - PCE Inflation — Annual Revision Leaves Upward Trend Intact

On September 30, the Bureau of Economic Analysis revised the last 5 years of PCE inflation numbers as part of its annual update of the National Economic Accounts. The graph in the full article illustrates YoY PCE price index growth from January 2025 to August 2026, pre- and post-revision. As expected, the revised line is closer to the 2% Fed goal, but the upward trend established over the last 18 months is solidly intact.

The FOMC decided to treat persistent U.S. inflation pressure with a 25 bps tightening on September 16, or as Chair Warsh put it, by removing a 25 bps “dose of accommodation.” These already-anticipated revisions wouldn’t have changed their minds.

September PCE comes out this Thursday (10/29), the day after this week’s FOMC meeting announcement. Given the recent CPI and PPI releases for September were up 3.7% and 6.3% YoY respectively, one might assume more doses of “accommodation removal” are on the way.