08.18.2026- Retail Miss, Consumer Still Standing

Retail Miss, Consumer Still Standing

The seasonally adjusted Advance Retail Sales number was expected to be +0.2% for July. The actual number fell by 0.6%. The not-seasonally-adjusted number, however, rose by 0.9%. To put the market’s going-in expectation into some perspective, the unadjusted number would have needed to be +1.7% for the seasonally adjusted number to have been in line with the +0.2% expectation.

The Advance Retail Sales print was less dire than the -0.6% MoM surprise would otherwise indicate—YoY growth was +5.0%, which is higher than the average 3.4% average YoY growth rate since 2023. On top of that, the personal consumption expenditures report for June showed solid growth on both a nominal and inflation-adjusted basis.